报告摘要：Todetermine the cross-immunity between influenza strains, we design a novelstatistical method, which uses a theoretical model and clinical data on attack rates and vaccine efficacy among school children for two seasons after the 1968A/H3N2 influenza pandemic. This model incorporates the distribution of susceptibility and the dependence of cross-immunity on the antigenic distanceof drifted strains. We find that the cross-immunity between an influenza strainand the mutant that causes the next epidemic is 88%. Our method also gives estimates of the vaccine protection against the vaccinating strain, and the basic reproduction number of the 1968 pandemic influenza.
报告主持：李美丽教授
报告语言：英语
